Central Bank of Russia leaves policy rate unchanged at 4.25% in February

Russia’s central bank announced on Friday left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% as expected. The USD/RUB pair extended its daily rally after this announcement and was last seen gaining 1.03% on a daily basis at 74.3750.

Key takeaways from policy statement as summarized by Reuters

"Will determine the timeline and pace of a return to neutral monetary policy taking into account the still high heterogeneity of current economic and price movement trends, actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target."

"In December and January, prices continued to grow at an elevated pace."

"Demand is recovering faster and more sustainably than expected."

"At the same time, supply-side restrictions are still in place and continue to exert upward pressure on prices."

"Inflation expectations of households and businesses remain elevated."

"Accelerated vaccination rates, as well as expectations of additional fiscal support measures in certain countries, contribute to the growth of prices in financial and commodity markets."

"Disinflationary risks no longer prevail over a one-year horizon."

"Moving forward, given the current monetary policy stance, annual inflation will stay close to 4%."

"Inflation expectations of businesses have not changed materially after growing over previous months."

"The baseline scenario assumes that, given the current monetary policy stance, annual inflation will reach   in 2021 and remain close to 4% later on."