NZD/USD: RBNZ prepares market for negative rates – CIBC

Analysts at CIBC see the NZD/USD pair moving to the downside over the next months, reaching 0.65 during the fourth quarter and 0.64 in the first quarter of next year. 

Key Quotes: 

“Our outlook for the NZD into the end of the year alongside the introduction of negative cash rates, potentially in Q1, is for further weakness against the USD and on major crosses, including JPY and CAD. New Zealand 2-year bond yields remain negative, and with further policy announcements to be made at the RBNZ meeting on November 11th, any residual yield advantage for the NZD continues to be eroded.”

“The election result was a win for PM Arden and the Labour party and was somewhat stronger than expected, but far from a surprise. NZ markets saw little impact. Economic challenges remain, in particular as subsidies and support programs run out. RBNZ will do their part with easier policy. As elsewhere, capacity to get infrastructure spending going will be watched closely.”