USD/CAD: Canadian dollar has some catching up to do from a fundamental perspective – CitiBank

The Canadian dollar has some catching up to do from a fundamental perspective such as oil prices, argue analysts at CitiBank. According to them, WTI have found a bottom and continue to steadily rise which may continue to support the loonie. They forecast USD/CAD at 1.30 in a three month view at 1.27 over six to twelve months. 

Key Quotes:

“We expect risk sentiment to continue to be an important driver, but also think CAD has some catching up to do from a fundamental perspective such as oil prices. WTI have found a bottom and continue to steadily rise. This may continue to support CAD over our forecast horizon as our forecast WTI at 56$/bbl in 12m. We think we are past the bottom in activity, which may support CAD.”

“USDCAD’s pattern looks consolidatory as did the pattern into the break lower on 26 May. Good trend line and 200 day moving average support at 1.3494-1.3511 is “moving into the spotlight” again. A close below there would suggest at least 1.3270-75 with good support at 1.3316-1.3329.”