UK: Article 50 to be extended for a second time? - Rabobank

According to analysts at Rabobank, there is a good chance that Article 50 will be extended for a second time as the length and the conditions of the extension will be decided at today’s European Council

Key Quotes

“If the Withdrawal Agreement Bill isn’t implemented before the date of the European elections, the EU27 will likely require the United Kingdom to hold the elections.”

“This means that the UK has to send MEPs to Brussels and Strasbourg, at least until the official Brexit date. The proposed reduction in the size of the European parliament will be postponed.”

“The centre-left S&D stands to gain from UK participation, as it avoids the loss of Labour MEPs. The centre-right EPP, which commands a sizable lead in the polls, will be relatively worse off because Conservative MEPs are affiliated with the ECR.”

“The participation of the UK won’t tip the balance on its own, but may tempt the EPP to keep Orbán’s Fidesz within its ranks after all.”

“The presence of Eurosceptic parties will rise, but the political groups still have to form a stable alliance. The election of Brexiteer MEPs may thwart progress on appointing high-profile jobs in EU institutions and setting the EU Budget.”