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7 Mar 2014
EMEA EM Express: Russian ruble falling for fourth running week on Crimea developments
FXStreet (Łódź) - Ukraine continues to remain in focus in Europe, following the decision of Crimea's parliament to carry out a referendum among the region's residents on whether they want to join Russia or remain part of Ukraine. Sanctions on Russia announced yesterday by the EU and the US don't seem to discourage Putin from declarations that the authorities in Kiev's decisions on the region are illegitimate.”
It was also reported that the Russian military has been carrying out massive drills not far from the border with Ukraine, while the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitors sent to Crimea were prevented from entering by unidentified armed men for the second day.
The markets have stabilized somewhat after the EU announced that it would provide aid for Ukraine of at least 11 billion euros. Ukrainian bonds were volatile late on after Kiev suggested that it is considering debt restructuring. In the opinion of the Deutsche Bank Chief EMEA Economist’s however: „under an IMF-led external assistance package, a hard restructuring (e.g. notional haircuts) is unlikely to be necessary given Ukraine's relatively low level of government debt (about 43% of GDP).”
Economic data
The Czech Statistical Office year-on-year Q4 GDP data released on Thursday showed a 1.3% increase compared to the 1.3% drop seen the previous month.
Hungarian Industrial Output grew by 6.1% in January on an annual basis, down from the 6.8% increase registered in December. Month-on-month it jumped 3.1%.
Hungary's PMI data as well as confidence indicators have also been improving and Andras Balatoni from ING says that even though GDP growth is expected to slow down it should still “stay in positive territory”.
The National Bank of Poland released FX Reserves numbers which point to a drop to €75.90B at the end of February from €78.50B.
Meanwhile, the Gross Gold & Forex Reserves released on Friday by the South African Reserve Bank for February revealed a rise to $50.137B, while the Net Gold & Forex Reserves stood at $45.337B.
Technicals
The ruble weakened by 0.4% 42.5630 against the Russia's central bank euro-dollar basket on the news of the Crimean parliaments vote in favor of the region becoming part of the Russian Federation, heading towards a fourth weekly decline.
The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/RUB is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 67.5537 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 5332 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4046 pips. The 1D 200 SMA is at 33.1000, while the 1D 20 EMA is neutral at 35.6278.
The USD/UAH daily FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral.
It was also reported that the Russian military has been carrying out massive drills not far from the border with Ukraine, while the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitors sent to Crimea were prevented from entering by unidentified armed men for the second day.
The markets have stabilized somewhat after the EU announced that it would provide aid for Ukraine of at least 11 billion euros. Ukrainian bonds were volatile late on after Kiev suggested that it is considering debt restructuring. In the opinion of the Deutsche Bank Chief EMEA Economist’s however: „under an IMF-led external assistance package, a hard restructuring (e.g. notional haircuts) is unlikely to be necessary given Ukraine's relatively low level of government debt (about 43% of GDP).”
Economic data
The Czech Statistical Office year-on-year Q4 GDP data released on Thursday showed a 1.3% increase compared to the 1.3% drop seen the previous month.
Hungarian Industrial Output grew by 6.1% in January on an annual basis, down from the 6.8% increase registered in December. Month-on-month it jumped 3.1%.
Hungary's PMI data as well as confidence indicators have also been improving and Andras Balatoni from ING says that even though GDP growth is expected to slow down it should still “stay in positive territory”.
The National Bank of Poland released FX Reserves numbers which point to a drop to €75.90B at the end of February from €78.50B.
Meanwhile, the Gross Gold & Forex Reserves released on Friday by the South African Reserve Bank for February revealed a rise to $50.137B, while the Net Gold & Forex Reserves stood at $45.337B.
Technicals
The ruble weakened by 0.4% 42.5630 against the Russia's central bank euro-dollar basket on the news of the Crimean parliaments vote in favor of the region becoming part of the Russian Federation, heading towards a fourth weekly decline.
The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/RUB is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 67.5537 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 5332 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4046 pips. The 1D 200 SMA is at 33.1000, while the 1D 20 EMA is neutral at 35.6278.
The USD/UAH daily FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral.