RUB gains appear limited – Danske Bank

Vladimir Miklashevsky, Strategist at Danske Bank, believes RUB could struggle to advance further.

Key Quotes

“Geopolitical risks to the RUB have returned to the fore for the first time in many months given the escalation of fighting in eastern Ukraine. Given the uncertainty on Donald Trump’s fiscal policy plans, there are clear potential upside and downside risks to our forecasts for the pair. An improving Russia-US relationship and eased sanctions would create appetite for the RUB. If the oil deal does not hold, it will weigh on the RUB through falling crude”.

“As the strong global appetite towards the RUB has prevailed since the start of 2017 and markets are positioned RUB long, Minfin’s new FX operation mechanism would slightly brake RUB’s rally on rising crude price”.