CAD: Expect a 0.5% m/m gain in July GDP numbers – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, is forecasting a 0.5% m/m gain in July industry-level GDP of Canada, following a 0.6% m/m gain in June.

Key Quotes

“The main story is expected to be a continued recovery in oil and gas extraction after the drop in May due to the Alberta wildfires, with a ~5% m/m gain anticipated (was 4.8% m/m in June). Manufacturing output should be up ~0.5% m/m in the month, while wholesale trade is expected to be close to flat.

The 0.5% monthly GDP gain is based on our expected 0.2% m/m volume gain in July retail sales on September 23—a significant deviation from this could alter the headline forecast. The strong gains in June and (anticipated) in July support our 3.7% q/q annualized forecast for Q3 GDP, broadly in line with the BoC’s 3.5% forecast from the July MPR.”