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9 Feb 2016
The Fed will be derailed on turmoil - TDS
Analysts at TD Securities noted that the ongoing turmoil in financial markets and the risk it poses to future economic growth will prompt the Federal Reserve to delay its next hike until June.
Key Quotes:
"Given the lagged drag of tighter financial conditions, they would likely only be able to deliver one further hike after that this year, likely in December, though if US and global growth can surprise to the upside, September is possible.
We see no major impact on global central banks as the ECB and BOJ have already embarked down a path of further easing while for commodity exporters, expectations for tightening over 2017 have already been scaled back. We have, however, revised our rates forecasts lower to account for our new Fed call.
We have also changed our expectations for the ECB to announce a 20bps rate cut, LTRO/TLTRO liquidity, and an increase in pace of QE purchases at their March meeting, but with rising risks of an announcement before the 10 March meeting."
Key Quotes:
"Given the lagged drag of tighter financial conditions, they would likely only be able to deliver one further hike after that this year, likely in December, though if US and global growth can surprise to the upside, September is possible.
We see no major impact on global central banks as the ECB and BOJ have already embarked down a path of further easing while for commodity exporters, expectations for tightening over 2017 have already been scaled back. We have, however, revised our rates forecasts lower to account for our new Fed call.
We have also changed our expectations for the ECB to announce a 20bps rate cut, LTRO/TLTRO liquidity, and an increase in pace of QE purchases at their March meeting, but with rising risks of an announcement before the 10 March meeting."