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4 Jan 2016
SEK could come under pressure on intervention - TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at TD Securities explained that the Riksbank’s concerns over SEK strength seem to be coming to a head. Policymakers have made their clearest and most explicit warning to date that FX intervention may be imminent.
Key Quotes:
"While they remain constrained by their policy mandate, we think such action lacks much fundamental justification. The details of any intervention program will matter—as will its aftermath—but the Riksbank will be blowing against the prevailing winds favouring SEK appreciation.
The SEK is cheap by many conventional valuation measures, but it has appreciated more quickly than their forecasts imply. This has put the Riksbank in a curious position, caught between their models and market realities.
This, together with our sense that the Riksbank’s main goal is to slow rather than prevent SEK appreciation from here suggests that SEK longs still have their place, but only from better entry levels.
With EUR/SEK in focus, we think the market may test the Riksbank’s resolve in coming days. At this stage, a quick move to the 9.10-9.05 region may elicit a response that could send the cross higher by 2-3% as a knee-jerk reaction.
With uncertainty on the rise, investors should take profits on NOK/SEK shorts and look to re-enter on a move higher"
Key Quotes:
"While they remain constrained by their policy mandate, we think such action lacks much fundamental justification. The details of any intervention program will matter—as will its aftermath—but the Riksbank will be blowing against the prevailing winds favouring SEK appreciation.
The SEK is cheap by many conventional valuation measures, but it has appreciated more quickly than their forecasts imply. This has put the Riksbank in a curious position, caught between their models and market realities.
This, together with our sense that the Riksbank’s main goal is to slow rather than prevent SEK appreciation from here suggests that SEK longs still have their place, but only from better entry levels.
With EUR/SEK in focus, we think the market may test the Riksbank’s resolve in coming days. At this stage, a quick move to the 9.10-9.05 region may elicit a response that could send the cross higher by 2-3% as a knee-jerk reaction.
With uncertainty on the rise, investors should take profits on NOK/SEK shorts and look to re-enter on a move higher"