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11 Dec 2015
US retail sales and UK construction output data in focus today – Lloyds Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Nikesh Sawjani, Financial Economist at Lloyds Bank, lists down the key economic releases for the day.
Key Quotes
“Today’s US retail sales report represents the penultimate key economic data release that could impact on market expectations for next week’s FOMC meeting. Yet, in the absence of a wildly weak report, it is unlikely that the data, at this stage, can meaningfully change current expectations of a hike in the Fed Funds target rate. Instead, the report is expected to reinforce the positive mood about domestic demand with headline sales expected to strengthen to 0.4% m/m in November from 0.1% in October, underpinned by strong vehicle sales over the month.”
“Ahead of this, UK construction output for October provides the domestic focus. Despite ongoing signs of strength in survey-based indicators of construction output, activity in Q3 contracted by 2.2%. More timely evidence, including the construction PMI and BoE Agents’ scores, suggest the activity outlook for the sector is broadly positive. Notwithstanding the volatility in monthly estimates, we expect a modest 0.5% gain in October activity.”
“Elsewhere, in the euro area the focus will be on the next TLTRO. The last operation attracted a very low take up of just €15.5bn and with liquidity surpluses elevated and low prevailing market rates, a similarly benign take up is expected.”
“In terms of key speakers, BoE’s Martin Weale is scheduled to speak on pension reforms at the NIESR conference.”
Key Quotes
“Today’s US retail sales report represents the penultimate key economic data release that could impact on market expectations for next week’s FOMC meeting. Yet, in the absence of a wildly weak report, it is unlikely that the data, at this stage, can meaningfully change current expectations of a hike in the Fed Funds target rate. Instead, the report is expected to reinforce the positive mood about domestic demand with headline sales expected to strengthen to 0.4% m/m in November from 0.1% in October, underpinned by strong vehicle sales over the month.”
“Ahead of this, UK construction output for October provides the domestic focus. Despite ongoing signs of strength in survey-based indicators of construction output, activity in Q3 contracted by 2.2%. More timely evidence, including the construction PMI and BoE Agents’ scores, suggest the activity outlook for the sector is broadly positive. Notwithstanding the volatility in monthly estimates, we expect a modest 0.5% gain in October activity.”
“Elsewhere, in the euro area the focus will be on the next TLTRO. The last operation attracted a very low take up of just €15.5bn and with liquidity surpluses elevated and low prevailing market rates, a similarly benign take up is expected.”
“In terms of key speakers, BoE’s Martin Weale is scheduled to speak on pension reforms at the NIESR conference.”