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6 Feb 2025

EU gas prices strengthen – ING

European natural gas prices saw renewed strength yesterday with TTF settling almost 2.7% higher on the day. Forecasts for colder weather have raised concerns that we will see steeper draws in gas storage in the coming days, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

A pullback in gas prices is due

“Speculators also appear to remain supportive towards the market current gas prices leave us deep in with the latest positioning data showing that investment funds increased their net long by 5TWh over the last reporting week to 283TWh. However, with the investment fund long making up more than 31% of total open interest, the position is starting to look a bit stretched.”

“In addition, current gas prices leave us deep in the gas-to-coal switching range for the power generation sector, while LNG cargoes should continue to be diverted towards Europe, with European prices trading at a premium to Asia through until the end of the summer. This all suggests we could be due a pullback in the absence of any surprises.”

“The latest positioning data also shows that speculators increased their net long yet again in EU allowances (EUAs). Investment funds increased their net long by 2.5k contracts over the week to 55.57k contracts – the largest net long held since September 2021. EUA prices have moved significantly higher this year, breaking above EUR80/t, supported by the strength seen in European gas prices. However, demand may provide resistance further ahead, particularly if we see an escalation in trade tensions.”

Feb 6, 2025

EUR: Some renewed attention on Ukraine – ING

One wild card for EUR/USD this year is what happens in Ukraine. Yesterday the FX market took note of the further rise in Ukraine's hard currency bonds.
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Feb 6, 2025

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains depressed near $32.00; bullish bias remains

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers following an intraday uptick on Thursday and snaps a three-day winning streak to a three-month top, around the $32.55 region touched the previous day.
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