EUR/USD: The direction of travel is to the 1.0450/1.0500 area – ING

EUR/USD closed below 1.0700 on Thursday. Economists at ING believe that the pair could plummet to the 1.0450/1.0500 zone.

Temporary downside to EUR/USD

“The two-year EUR/USD swap differential has widened back out to levels last seen in mid-December. This now stands at -150 bps having narrowed to -110 bps at the start of this month. Arguably this spread should not narrow in too much more (unless the market thinks that Fed Funds will end the year near 5.50%), meaning that EUR/USD may not have to fall too much more. We would, however, say the direction of travel is to the 1.0450/1.0500 area, which may be the strongest Dollar level of the year for Eurozone corporates.”

“There is not too much on the Eurozone calendar today apart from the December current account figure and the market seems to be ignoring yesterday's comments from ECB dove, Fabio Panetta, favouring the ECB to move in 25 bps rather than 50 bps increments.”